SGH Macro Analysis: Will China bottom in March?
Tomorrow at 03:00BST, China is due to release its Q1 GDP alongside its March retail sales and industrial production data, then followed by a press conference.
Ahead of the release, nine economic departments published their individual analysis reports on April 8th. Here are some key findings:
- All departments believe Q1 GDP will be the lowest rate in three decades, as anticipated heading into the end of last year.
- Three departments registered a Q1 GDP growth rate of 6.4%. Meanwhile, five departments saw Q1 GDP growth at 6.3% whilst one department saw the figure at 6.2%.
As a reminder, IMF revised up its forecast for Chinese growth this year to 6.3% (Prev. 6.2%) whilst downgrading the global forecast to 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%).
“To ensure the modest recovery stays on track, the policy focus from Beijing will remain targeted on proactive fiscal policy, while maintaining liquidity at “reasonably ample” levels through 2019.” SGH Macro notes.
Finally, Chinese officials have noted a prudent monetary policy which is “neither too tight nor too loose”, which rules out a universal RRR cut but does not necessarily dismiss a targeted RRR reduction or lower OMO rates if needed.
16 Apr 2019 - 07:37- Research Sheet- Source: SGH Macro
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