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The final round of the French election will set the tone early in the week. Centrist independent Emmanuel Macron and the far-right National Front’s leader Marine Le Pen face off, with the polls set to close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 7th May. Polls have hovered around a 60:40 split in favour of Macron for some time now although there is a notable amount of “undecided” voters, with a low participation rate expected. Exit polls are expected to be released by mainstream media shortly after 20:00 CET.

Chinese...
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  • Asia equity markets traded negative amid commodity weakness in which oil continued its sell-off, while the looming US NFP data also added to the subdued tone
  • The greenback’s attempts to nurse recent losses were futile, with the USD-index contained below the 99.00 level.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report, Fed’s Fischer, Williams, Evans, Yellen and...
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  • The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected while maintaining an overall upbeat view of the economy and labour market
  • This subsequently provided support to the USD with USD/JPY moving closer to 113.00 and EUR/USD below 1.0900
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone services PMIs, Norges Bank rate decision, US trade data, factory orders and a slew of ECB speakers

Fed kept rates...
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  • Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction amid looming risk events and a slew of market closures overnight
  • GBP has lost some ground heading into the EU open amid reports that UK PM May is said to have been barred from discussions on Brexit terms
  • Looking ahead, highlights include the FOMC rate decision, ADP Employment Change and...
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**NOTE, THIS REPORT INCLUDES STORIES FROM OVER THE WEEKEND AND YESTERDAY GIVEN MARKET CLOSURES IN EU AND UK YESTERDAY**

  • Asian equities trade with little in the way of firm direction as markets return from holiday and digest softer than expected Chinese PMIs
  • Support was seen for AUD after the RBA kept rates on hold as expected while being upbeat on the global economy
  • Looking ahead, highlights...
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The Chinese official PMIs (due for release on Sunday 30th April) will likely set the tone for early trade next week. Analysts are looking for a marginal moderation in the manufacturing release, with the median estimate looking for a print of 51.7 against a prior 51.8. As ever there are no expectations for the non-manufacturing release with last month’s coming in at 55.1. Fears surrounding an economic hard landing in China have receded in recent times, and last month’s releases added further credence to this...
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  • Asian equities traded mostly lower despite some strong US tech earnings after-market as political concerns and softness in commodities tempered gains
  • FX markets were relatively quiet with USD/JPY subdued around 111.00 after a slew of mixed data releases
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US and Canadian GDP, Chicago PMI, Uni. Of Michigan

ASIA

Asia equity...
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Asian equities followed suit from their US counterparts which failed to be inspired by the latest Trump tax plan

Focus in FX has been on CAD and MXN which have both been supported after Trump agreed not withdraw from NAFTA ‘at this time’

Looking ahead, highlights include German regional and national CPI, Riksbank & ECB rate decisions and US durables

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  • Asian equities followed their US counterparts amid a slew of strong corporate earnings
  • AUD slipped in response to softer than expected inflation figures, despite moving to within the RBA target range for the first time since 2014.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US DoE Crude Inventories and Canadian Retail Sales.

ASIA

Asia equity markets...
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  • Positive momentum continues in Asia amid the French election relief rally, alongside optimism over tax cuts.
  • Major pairs relatively rangebound, however CAD slips on news that US is to levy 20% import tax on Canadian lumber.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Richmond Fed, API Crude report and US New Home Sales.

ASIA

Asia equity markets maintained the...
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French Presidential Candidates Macron and Le Pen move to the 2nd round run-off after gaining the most votes in the 1st round

The fallout of the French election saw EUR/USD break above 1.0900 to print its highest level in 5 months while Asia-Pac trade saw a general ‘risk-on’ tone

Looking ahead, highlights include German IFO and Fed’s Kashkari

  • FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL...
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INTRO

Sunday 23rd April will see voters head to the polls for the first round of voting in the French Presidential election. The first round of voting will see 11 candidates looking to secure the minimum 50% of the total vote to secure the French Presidency. Should no individual candidate secure this then the race will go to a second round on Sunday May 7th which will see the two...

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FX Weekly Outlook 21.03.17

Weekly FX outlook, looking ahead:

An explosive start to next week as Sunday’s first round election vote in France overshadows the market. EUR looks pretty relaxed in the run up; complacency? GBP resilient firm despite weak spending numbers, but the CAD suffers another blow as inflation softens – CAD takes out 1.3500 again.

Looking into next week it is hard to see past Sunday’s key first round vote in the French elections, where there is much at stake for Europe and the single currency union as a...
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Watch RANsquawk's Head Analyst Adam Linton give a preview of what to expect from the upcoming French Presidential Election. 1st round is on 23rd April 2017, 2nd round follows on 7th May 2017. For RAN subscribers we are offering FREE extended access on the 1st round from 6.45pm BST Sunday 23rd April. Don't forget to tune in.

"https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZpSPpWeQbfE" title="RANsquawk's French Presidential Election Preview" description="Watch RANsquawk's Head Analyst Adam Linton give a preview of what to...
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  • Asian equities traded mostly higher in the final trading session of the week amid the positive healthcare reform-inspired gains on Wall Street
  • FX markets traded quiet amid a lack of tier 1 data releases, which saw the USD-Index hold below 100.00
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK retail sales, Canadian CPI, US mfg PMI, Existing Home Sales, BoE’s Saunders and ECB’s...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher, albeit modestly so with the Nikkei 225 supported by strong export-based trade data
  • NZD gained some ground against its major counterparts overnight amid encouraging domestic CPI figures
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobs, Philly Fed, Fed’s Powell, Rosengren and BoE’s Carney

ASIA

Asia equity markets...
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  • Asian equities traded lower amid the downbeat tone from Wall Street whereby lacklustre earnings dragged prices lower
  • GBP took focus after the EU close yesterday with GBP/USD steamrolling tspanough stops to briefly break above 1.2900
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone CPI, DoEs, Fed’s George, Rosengren and ECB’s Coeure

ASIA

Asia...
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  • Asian equity markets traded mostly lower despite the positive Wall Street lead with the ASX notably hampered by losses in gold and iron ore
  • FX markets were relatively uneventful overnight with USD/JPY largely guided by fluctuating risk sentiment
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits and Housing Starts, Fed’s George and Rosengren

ASIA

Asian...
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  • Equity markets across Asia continued with the week’s theme, as geopolitical fears and commentary continued to lead to a risk off tone
  • Comments from President Trump that the USD is getting too strong and he prefers low interest rate policy set the tone for Asian trade
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI, weekly jobs data, Uni. Of Michigan

ASIA

Equity...
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  • Asian equities slip amid the rising geopolitical concerns, while Chinese CPI misses analyst estimates.
  • JPY the notable beneficiary from the risk off tone with USD/JPY at its lowest level since Nov’16.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Data, BoC Rate Decision, and DoE Crude Report.

ASIA

Geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on markets with the...
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  • Mounting geopolitical concerns continue to guide investor sentiment with Asian equities trading mostly lower
  • This sentiment was also seen in FX markets with JPY one of the main beneficiaries, dragging USD/JPY below 111.00
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK inflation, German ZEW and Fed’s Kashkari

ASIA

Asia equity markets mostly traded with a...
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  • Asian equities traded mixed following on from the subdued Wall Street lead while geopolitical tensions continue to mount over the weekend
  • USD held onto Friday’s gains where the USD-index reclaimed 101.00, meanwhile, JPY softened with USD/JPY extending further above 111.00
  • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Constancio and Fed’s Yellen

ASIA

Asia equity...
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  • Risk-off sentiment has been spurred by heightened geopolitical tensions as the US launched cruise missiles against Syrian targets
  • A Syria military source stated that the strike led to losses, while Russia is to seek a UN Security Council meeting on the strike
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US and Canadian Jobs reports, UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production, BoE's Carney, Fed's Dudley, ECB's Coeure and...
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  • FOMC minutes saw focus around a potential change to the Fed’s reinvestment policy and a split on whether hikes should be faster or more gradual
  • Asia equities traded lower, following on from the US lead with the USD losing ground against major counterparts
  • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, US Weekly Jobs data, ECB’s Draghi, Praet and Constancio

FOMC...
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  • Asia equity markets traded choppy following the mild gains on Wall St. which was led by the energy sector
  • FX markets were uneventful amid a lack of tier 1 data during the Asia session, which kept the USD range-bound
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone, UK and US Service PMI, ADP Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, DoEs and FOMC Minutes
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MOC: * SPX 850mln to sell (vs at 650mln to sell at 1549 EDT) * Dow 50mln to sell (vs 100mln to buy at 1549 EDT)