RANsquawk

Blog

  • Significant underperformance in the DAX following losses in BMW and Bayer
  • PM May to ask for a ‘short’ extension to A50, of up to 3 months. However, remainers are looking to derail her plans via an emergency debate
  • In FX, Dollar steadies ahead of FOMC, aided by GBP declines
  • Looking ahead, highlights include New Zealand GDP, FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference

 

ASIA  

Asian equity markets lacked firm direction with the region cautious following a...

Categories:
  • Asian equity markets lacked firm direction with the region cautious following a lacklustre lead from Wall St
  • US President Trump said talks with China are "going very well" and reports suggested that US-China talks are in final stages
  • Separate reports noted that some US officials see China walking back on some trade offers but suggested this is a normal procedure in trade talks
  • UK PM May requested to address the 1922 Committee at 1700GMT, while the PM’s office has indicated the Brexit extension...
Categories:
  • European indices are firmer [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%] shrugging off a indecisive lead from Asia
  • Sterling respite on ONS data & Brexit updates, while the dollar remains subdued ahead of FOMC
  • UK PM May to reportedly request a 9-12 month delay to Brexit, EU leaders are reportedly planning a contingent offer on Brexit extension to be finalised in days before March 29th
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US Durable Goods (Revised) & Factory Orders, New Zealand Current Account, Riksbanks'...
Categories:
  • Asian stock indices traded indecisively amid a lack of key drivers for the region and with participants cautious ahead of the upcoming risk events
  • UK PM May is said to request a 9-12 months delay to Brexit, according to The Sun
  • In FX markets, USD was subdued, whilst the greenback’s major counterparts struggled for direction
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK Employment Data, German ZEW Survey, US Durable Goods (Revised) & Factory Orders, New Zealand Current Account, ECB's Praet &...
Categories:
  • Mixed start to the week for Major European Indices [Stoxx 600 +0.1%] following a relatively optimistic lead from Asia
  • A summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could be delayed to June according to sources
  • Antipodeans outperform as the dollar is generally subdued, GBP choppy ahead of another crucial week for Brexit
  • Amidst conflicting reports, Iraqi Energy minister confirms next OPEC+ JMMC in June; although...
Categories:
  • Asian stocks began the week mostly higher after last Friday’s tech-led upside on Wall St, China outperformed
  • A summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could be delayed to June according to sources
  • UK PM May received backing by some staunch Brexiteers after she personally lobbied MPs but still remained significantly short of the number she needs to win a vote this week
  • In FX markets, price action was...
Categories:
  • Major European indices trade positively as US-China trade optimism continues from Asia.
  • UK AG Cox is attempting to win over Brexiteers and DUP with new legal advice; however, Cox’s efforts have been rejected by Brexit supporting lawmakers.
  • Dollar underperforms major counterparts, particularly NZD & GBP
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed Manufacturing, US Manufacturing Output & Industrial Production, and Quadruple Witching

 

ASIA  

Asian...

Categories:
  • Asian stocks traded mostly positive across the board as US-China trade optimism helped the region shake off the negative lead from the US
  • BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged with NIRP held at -0.10% and 10yr JGB target at around 0% as expected
  • US President Trump said we will have news on China trade deal in the next 3-4 weeks one way or the other
  • UK lawmakers voted (412 vs 202) to accept the government's motion to extend the Article 50 process beyond 29th...
Categories:

14th March 2019

·        Trade deal sentiment rocked after US & China said to delay Trump/Xi meeting until April

·        Major European indices [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%] are firmer, but off of bests after Trump/Xi delay

·        Dollar respite as G10 counterparts falter

·        EU Council President Tusk...

Categories:
  • Asian stocks were initially higher across the as the region took early impetus from the US. However, the risk tone was eventually clouded as participants digested Chinese data
  • UK Government Brexit motion to rule out a no-deal in any scenario and Brexit Amendment A were both accepted by the HoC last night
  • Focus now turns to today’s vote on potentially extending Article 50; Government extension motion proposes an extension until June 30th
  • US...
Categories:
  • Major European indices are slightly firmer [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%] shrugging off poor performance overnight
  • UK has announced temporary cuts to import tariffs and temporary moves to avoid a hard Irish-Northern Irish border in a no-deal Brexit scenario
  • Sterling outperforms G10 counterparts, around the 1.3150 level
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US Durable Goods & PPI, Construction Spending, HoC Vote on no-deal, ECB's Coeure, Supply from the US

ASIA

Asian equity markets...

Categories:
  • UK PM May lost the Brexit deal vote by 391 against vs. 242 for (149 vote margin). Lawmakers will now vote on the possibility of accepting a no deal Brexit
  • Asian equity markets traded mostly lower following the mixed lead from Wall St and after UK PM May’s Brexit defeat and soft data releases
  • In FX, the DXY traded uneventfully overnight with price action stuck at the 97.00 level as EUR/USD flatlined
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, EZ Industrial Production, US Durable Goods & PPI, Construction...
Categories:
  • UK PM May secured assurances from the EU regarding the Northern Irish Backstop
  • Sterling loses some of its stride ahead of AG Cox’s verdict and the meaningful vote
  • European equities are somewhat mixed having waned off opening highs [Euro Stoxx 50 U/C]
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US inflation, API crude inventories, UK House of Commons to vote on PM May’s Brexit deal

 

ASIA

Asian equity...

Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the M&A inspired tech-led rally on Wall St
  • UK PM May has secured “legally binding” changes to her Withdrawal Agreement, however, she did not get the power to unilaterally exit the backstop, nor did she get a time limit placed on it
  • European Commission President Juncker said that the legal add-on to the Brexit deal stresses the temporary nature of the backstop and he warned if the deal is voted down, there was “no third...
Categories:
  • Major European equity indices are essentially unchanged, while Dow futures underperform due to heavyweight Boeing
  • Brexit deadlock continues, recent reports suggest that PM May may change tomorrows vote from meaningful to provisional
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US retail sales (Jan), BoE’s Haskel, US supply. Note: US clocks have changed (London-NY gap is now 4 hours)

 

ASIA

Asian equity markets traded somewhat...

Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded somewhat indecisive as the region digested Friday’s mixed US jobs data, China outperformed on PBoC pledge to further support the slowing economy
  • China reportedly removed the trip to Mar-a-Lago from Chinese President Xi's calendar, US and China are still negotiating over the phone
  • Brexit talks between the UK and the EU remain at an impasse, Downing Street has said, talks are to resume today
  • UK PM May has reportedly been warned by MPs that the Brexit vote must be put on...
Categories:
  • Monday: Eurogroup meeting
  • Tuesday: Brexit Meaningful Vote (TBC), ECOFIN meeting, UK GDP, US CPI
  • Wednesday: Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI
  • Thursday: BoJ Rate Decision, US Retail Sales
  • Friday: Eurozone CPI (final), NY Fed Mfg, Uni of Michigan (Prelim), US JOLTS (Jan), US Industrial Production
Categories:
  • Chinese trade surplus shrinks, as exports sink to 3 year lows
  •  European indices [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%] extend losses amidst global growth concerns
  • Dxy drifts from YTD peaks awaiting US payrolls
  •  Looking ahead, highlights include US & Canadian Jobs Report, ECB's Mersch Speaking

 

ASIA

Asian equity markets were negative across board on spill-over selling from their global peers after...

Categories:
  • Asian equity markets were negative across board on spill-over selling from their global peers after the ECB's latest policy announcement and disappointing Chinese trade data
  • UK PM May will urge the EU to help get her Brexit deal through House of Commons by agreeing to legally binding changes to the backstop
  • Sources reported that the ECB is said to doubt 2019 outlook was cut by enough and that President Draghi is said to have pushed for ECB stimulus package
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German...
Categories:
  • Major European equities are marginally lower [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%] ahead of today’s ECB policy announcement
  • EU Brexit negotiators have told UK Attorney General Cox to rework his backstop proposals and return for further talks on Friday
  • Huawei has filed a lawsuit against the US for banning equipment from certain networks
  • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Rate Decision & Press Conference, Fed's Brainard, ECB's Praet,
  • Earnings: Costco

 

ASIA

Asian...

Categories:
  • Asian stocks were mostly lower following the negative lead from Wall Street, China wobbled after Huawei filed a lawsuit against the US government
  • EU officials are reportedly pessimistic about reaching a Brexit breakthrough. Negotiators suspect that whatever they offer will not be enough to get Parliament to back PM May's Brexit deal
  • UK PM May's Cabinet believes her Brexit deal 'will be defeated by 100 votes', Chief Whip Smith recently warned that Parliament will force a soft Brexit if deal is...
Categories:
  • European indices are moving towards unchanged [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%] after a somewhat weaker start
  • AUD underperforms, weighed on by; GDP miss, banks now expecting two rate cuts and RBA’s Lowe stating it is hard to imagine a rate hike this year
  • EU official states that talks did not go well, as EU/UK talks continue, after ending without agreement yesterday
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP National Employment & International Trade, Canadian Trade Balance, BoC Rate Decision, BoE's Cunliffe,...
Categories:
  • Asian stocks were relatively mostly higher following a muted lead from Wall Street, Nikkei 225 underperformed
  • AUD was dealt a triple-whammy from Aussie GDP, Governor Lowe and JPM downgrading RBA rate forecasts
  • UK and EU negotiators reached no agreement yesterday, an EU official said the talks did not go well, dialogue will continue today
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP National Employment & International Trade, Canadian Trade Balance, BoC Rate Decision, BoE's Cunliffe, Haldane &...
Categories:
  • Major European indices are moving towards negative territory, after starting the session somewhat firmer [Euro Stoxx 50 U/C]
  • China lowered their 2019 GDP growth target range to 6.0-6.5% vs. Prev. around 6.5%
  • DXY is off of its best levels, but continues to move higher and as such is outperforming its G10 counterparts
  • Looking ahead, highlights US Composite and Services PMI, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Rosengren, Kashkari, Barkin, BoE’s Carney, RBA’s...
Categories:

Asian stocks traded lacklustre following a disappointing lead from Wall Street. Mainland China maintained composure following the Chinese NPC announcement

China lowered its 2019 GDP growth target to the range of 6.0-6.5% from “around 6.5%” and maintained CPI target at 3.0%, both as expected, budget deficit for 2019 was set at 2.8% vs. 2.6% in 2018

The RBA left its Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50% as expected. The statement was relatively mixed but the last paragraph (often seen as the most important) remained...

Categories:
MOC: * SPX 850mln to sell (vs at 650mln to sell at 1549 EDT) * Dow 50mln to sell (vs 100mln to buy at 1549 EDT)