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  • UK PM May is set to publish a 15 page document today detailing how she intends to protect the rights of 3.2mln EU nationals residing in Britain
  • Asian equities traded higher across the board after a positive close on Wall Street on Friday with macro newsflow otherwise light
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German IFO, US Durables and ECB’s...
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Click here for the RANsquawk Week Ahead Eco Preview, 26 to 30 June 2017

FEDERAL RESERVE

• The abundance of Fedspeak last week did little to persuade the market to shift towards the FOMC’s hiking trajectory – which has pencilled in seven additional 25bps hikes tspanough the end of 2019; Fed Funds Futures, on the other hand, see just two more hikes over that...
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The RANsquawk Weekly G10 Central Bank Monitor can be accessed here

NORTH AMERICA

MON 26 JUN 2017 - 1330BST: US DURABLE GOODS ORDER (MAY, PRELIM)

Forecast: -0.7% vs prev. -0.8%; ex-transport seen 0.3% vs prev. -0.5%. The headline weakness is likely to come on the back of softer orders from Boeing, which reported...
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  • UK PM May unveiled proposals for EU citizens at the Brussels summit including a proposal that would allowed 3 million EU citizens to stay in the UK Permanently
  • Asian equity markets lacked impetus amid quiet newsflow and after a subdued Wall St. close in which stocks posted a 3rd consecutive day of losses
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone PMIs, Canadian CPI, Fed’s Bullard, Mester and...
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  • UK PM May is facing a constitutional crisis after Labour and the Liberal Democrats tspaneatened to use the House of Lords to water down Brexit
  • NZD which was lifted by the RBNZ after it kept rates unchanged as expected and suggested an optimistic tone on growth
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Norges Bank rate decision, US weekly jobs and Fed’s...
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The RBNZ is scheduled to release its latest rate decision today at 2200BST/1600CDT/0500HKT in which consensus is one-sided for the OCR to be kept on hold at the record low 1.75%, with all 26 economists surveyed unanimously forecasting no changes in rates.

Expectations for the central bank to stand pat tspanoughout the near-term and maintain a neutral tone were solidified at the last meeting, after Governor Wheeler explicitly stated that the RBNZ is neutral on policy and expects the OCR to remain at the...
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  • The DUP is reported to have tspaneatened to walk away from talks with the Conservative party over forming a government
  • Asian equity markets traded mostly negative following the downbeat Wall St. close, where energy lagged
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK PSNB figures, US existing home sales, DoEs

ASIA

Asia equity markets...
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  • Asian equities saw little in the way of firm direction with the Nikkei 225 supported by a softer JPY and the ASX hampered by commodities
  • USD held on to the gains spurred by hawkish comments from Fed's Dudley. EUR/USD and GBP/USD firmly below 1.1200 and 1.2800 levels respectively
  • ...
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  • Today sees the beginning of UK-EU Brexit negotiations with UK press suggesting a potential tspaneat to May’s leadership
  • French President Macron’s party and allies won a parliamentary majority with over 300 seats of the total 577-seats.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include the beginning of UK-EU Brexit negotiations, ECB’s...
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RANsquawk Weekly G10 Central Bank Monitor can be accessed here

NORTH AMERICA

TUE 20 JUN 2017 - 1330BST: US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (Q1)

Forecast: The deficit is seen narrowing to USD 124.9bln vs a deficit of 112.4bln prior.

WED 21 JUN 2017 - 1500BST: US EXISTING HOME SALES (MAY)

Forecast:...
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RANsquawk's Eco Week Ahead can be accessed here

FEDERAL RESERVE

• As expected, the FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 1.00-1.25% – the second hike of 2017, and the fourth in the current tightening cycle. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was the lone dissenter, once again.

• The revisions to its economic projections were mostly in-line with the...
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  • BoJ kept rates unchanged at -0.1% as expected and maintained QQE with Yield Curve Control as expected
  • Asian equities traded mostly higher across the board despite the negative lead from Wall Street. Nikkei 225 outperformed amid softer JPY
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US housing starts, Uni. Of...
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  • Fed hiked by 25bps as Exp. & outlined plans for balance sheet normalisation, expects inflation and growth to pick up
  • Subsequently seen as more hawkish than anticipated; support for US yields, USD, equities hampered before recovering into the close
  • Looking ahead, highlights include SNB & BoE rate decisions, US weekly...
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PREVIEW: BoE June Rate Decision and Minutes Release 1200BST/0600CST

  • Current BoE Base Rate: 0.25%, Asset Purchase Target: GBP 435bln of government securities and GBP 10bln of corporate debt.
  • Analysts expect the BoE to remain on hold this meeting with rhetoric from the minutes expected to have a neutral tone.
  • This meeting sees the release of the decision itself, the vote split and the minutes, but no Quarterly Inflation Report scheduled this...
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  • Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction despite tech names posting a rebound yesterday and the S&P 500 and DJIA posting record highs
  • FX markets were relatively quiet with the USD-index languished below the 97.00 level ahead of an anticipated ‘dovish hike’ by the Fed later today
  • Looking ahead, highlights include the UK jobs report, US CPI, DoEs and the FOMC rate...
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  • The FOMC is seen raising the FFR target by 25bps to 1.00-1.25%, but the main focus will be on the hike trajectory
  • Updated economic projections will be published, and there will be a post-meeting press conference with Chair Janet Yellen
  • Analysts aren’t expecting any dramatic changes in the Fed’s updated forecasts and ‘dot-plots’
  • Traders will be looking out for details on how the Fed intends to begin sspaninking its balance sheet
  • ...
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  • Asian equities managed to avoid further losses despite a continuation of tech-related selling pressure seen on Wall Street
  • In FX, USD/JPY nursed yesterday’s losses to test 110.00 to the upside, while EUR/USD languished after relinquishing the 1.1200 handle
  • Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, German ZEW, US PPI and API Inventories

ASIA

Asia sspanugged...
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  • Asian equities traded mostly lower after Friday’s tech sell-off seen on Wall Street while uncertainty continues to surround UK politics
  • Exit polls from the first round of France's parliamentary election suggest Macron’s La Republique En Marche party is to win between 415-455 seats (out of 577)
  • Today’s session sees a lack of tier 1 data releases

ASIA

Asia...
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FEDERAL RESERVE

  • A 25bps hike to the Federal Funds Rate target on 14 June 2017 is pretty much a done deal, with money markets pricing in a 99.6% chance that rates will be lifted for the second time this year to 1.00-1.25%. The real question is whether the Fed will maintain its “gradual” hike trajectory, which sees a total of tspanee rate rises per annum in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
  • The FOMC will also update its economic projections, which aren’t likely to see...
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Key Events: -

Monday:

Tuesday: UK Inflation Data (May)

Wednesday: US FOMC MonPol Decision, US CPI (May), US Retail Sales (May), UK Labour Market Report (Apr/May), New Zealand GDP (Q1)

Thursday: BoE MonPol Decision, SNB MonPol Decision, UK Retail Sales (May), Australian Labour Market Report (May)

Friday: BoJ MonPol Decision, Eurozone CPI (May, F)

North...
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  • Theresa May’s future is in doubt as her gamble to strengthen her hand looks to have backfired with projections for a hung parliament.
  • GBP fell around 200 pips on the release of the exit poll, while the latest forecasts from BBC seeing Conservatives at 318 seats (8 short of an absolute majority and 12 short from current) labour at 267.
  • **Note that a working majority can be obtained with 321 seats given that the tspanee...
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Following on from our June 8th ECB Decision Rate Preview, here is a quick take from today's meeting:

Key Points: -

- All tspanee key interest rates were left unchanged, as expected.

- The European Central Bank (ECB) stated that “policy rates are to remain at present levels for an extended period of time”; removing the word 'lower' from...
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ECB Preview: Rate Decision due at 1245BST/0645CDT and Press Conference at 1330BST/0730CDT

  • All rates and the current pace of asset purchases are expected to be left unchanged.
  • The ECB is expected to tweak its forward guidance by categorising its growth risks as balanced. There is also a chance it may adjust guidance on rates and asset purchases.
  • Staff will update macroeconomic projections; any shift in...
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  • Asian equities saw an indecisive session ahead of key risk events with notable data releases including Japanese GDP and Chinese Trade
  • USD held onto the gains seen after Former FBI Director Comey’s prepared statement was deemed less detrimental than some had feared
  • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB rate decision, UK election and Former FBI Director Comey’s...
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    • Asian equities saw little in the way of firm direction as participants remained weary ahead of a slew of upcoming key risk events
    • AUD took focus overnight in FX markets following better than expected domestic Y/Y GDP data
    • Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone GDP and DoE Inventories

    ASIA

    Asia traded choppy with initial downside...
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It's a wrap from us for the week, gang!! As always, thanks for your nosebleed levels of awesomeness!! Stay safe, pl… https://t.co/UNcZxkJ1ie