RANsquawk

Blog

  • European indices are mixed wih Italy’s FTSE MIB outperforming on coalition positioning
  • Italy’s 5-Star Movement have suspended talks with PD unless they agree to have Conte as the coalitions PM
  • In FX markets, USD has modestly pulled back and remains below 98.00, while Sterling is supported by improved Brexit deal prospects
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Confidence, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, BoE’s Tenreyro, ECB’s de Guindos & supply the...
Categories:
  • Asian stocks were higher as they followed suit to the rebound across their global peers amid a more conciliatory tone from US President Trump
  • US President Trump suggested that negotiations with China will begin shortly and thinks a deal will be reached
  • Trump was also optimistic about reaching a deal with EU and was open to meeting Iran President Rouhani under the right circumstances
  • Italy's 5-Star and PD were reportedly on track towards an agreement where Conte can return as PM according to two PD...
Categories:

26th August 2019 

·        A plethora of US-China comments thus far has resulted in choppy risk sentiment, overall Trump has been constructive though China remains negative

·        US President Trump stated that the sides held talks over the weekend though, China denied all knowledge of this and Trump added that anything is possible in the context of delaying planned...

Categories:
  • Asian equity markets tracked last Friday’s hefty losses on Wall Street and the continued weakness in US index futures at the reopen due to the escalation in the US-China trade war
  • US President Trump announced on Friday he is to raise tariffs on China by another 5ppts on the current and incoming tariffs
  • China Global Times Editor stated that China is seriously preparing for a scenario in which China-US trade relations further deteriorate
  • In FX...
Categories:
  • European bourses are firmer this morning in-line with the cautious gains overnight ahead of the main Jackson Hole event today of Fed’s Powell
  • USD is firmer vs most G10 counterparts particularly Sterling as backstop optimism fades, though NZD outperforms on RBNZ comments overnight
  • China Global Times Editor Hu Xijin says "Based on what I know, China will take further countermeasures in response to US tariffs on USD 300 billion Chinese goods. Beijing will soon unveil a plan of imposing retaliatory tariffs on...
Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded with cautious gains as participants await Fed Chair Powell’s speech and after the lack of conviction on Wall St.
  • In FX markets, the greenback extended above the 98.00 level, EUR/USD was contained in a tight range, USD/JPY and JPY-crosses edged mild gains and NZD/USD firmed after comments from RBNZ Governor Orr
  • UK Tory Remainers who are intent on stopping a no-deal are reportedly attempting to delay Brexit, according to...
Categories:
  • Core European bourses are marginally softer this morning as sentiment took a downturn in-spite of strong EZ data
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry said China will have to retaliate if US persists on current course, adding that any new measures will lead to escalation, unreliable entity list will be published soon
  • Italian President Mattarella is meeting with parties today, announcement on a potential PD/5-Star deal expected after 16:00BST today
  • USD is mixed, with safe haven JPY remaining firm and antipodeans...
Categories:
  • FOMC Minutes stated a couple of policymakers would have preferred a 50bps rate cut to address low inflation and that several favoured maintaining rate
  • A reference to the “mid-cycle adjustment” suggests that Fed Chair Powell's use of the phrase was not an off-the-cuff remark
  • German Chancellor Merkel said she would welcome a negotiated Brexit deal but is ready for all outcomes and challenged UK PM Johnson to come up with a solution to avert a no-deal...
Categories:
  • European indices are firmer this morning as risk sentiment recovers somewhat, to the detriment of fixed income and safe havens
  • Fed’s Daly stated she does not think we are heading for a recession while Fed’s Kashkari believes Fed should use forward guidance now and will argue for cuts in September
  • USD is mixed vs. G10 counterparts though is outperforming safe havens on sentiment and Sterling ahead of UK PM Johnson's meeting with German Chancellor Merkel
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI,...
Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded subdued as the region conformed to the dampened global risk tone with markets cautious ahead of looming FOMC risk
  • EU sources reportedly believe UK PM Johnson is pulling British officials out of EU meetings which hints that the PM is not serious about achieving a Brexit deal
  • Italian PM Conte submitted his resignation to Italian President Mattarella. Conte was then asked by President Mattarella to stay as a caretaker...
Categories:
  • European bourses are little changed this morning after a mixed Asia-Pac handover and little in the way of catalysts since then
  • DXY has inched closer to August highs with Sterling subdued and safe havens deriving some safe haven impetus
  • Italian PM Conte to address the senate at 14:00BST/09:00ET on the ongoing political crisis
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Italian PM Conte addressing the Senate, Fed’s Quarles & Daly

ASIA-PAC

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the...

Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region benefitted from the mild tailwind in the US
  • UK PM Johnson told EU's Tusk in a letter he hopes the UK will leave the EU with a deal, but the backstop must be scrapped
  • DXY held on to recent gains although price action was uneventful ahead of this week’s FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole symposium
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian GDP, APIs, Italian PM Conte addressing the Senate, Fed’s Quarles
  • Earnings: Persimmon, Home Depot,...
Categories:
  • European indices (+0.9%) are benefiting from the improved risk sentiment thus far, to the detriment of the fixed income complex and safe havens
  • PBoC announced that it will make the Loan Prime Rate the new Benchmark Reference Rate, which will be linked to the Medium-term Lending Facility rate
  • US President Trump reiterated he is not ready to make a deal with China, reports stated that the Trump administration will grant Huawei an additional 90-day extension, a decision is to be made today
  • Looking...
Categories:
  • European indices are higher across the board, the FTSE 100 saw a delayed start on technical issues and EU banking names saw a sudden sell-off
  • US President Trump doesn’t believe China will retaliate on tariffs, and a call is scheduled with Chinese PM XI
  • Iran has not given any assurances on Grace 1 not going to Syria, saying it was not heading there originally
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & Housing Starts, University of Michigan Sentiment, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report,...
Categories:
  • Asian equity markets struggled for firm direction following the mixed lead from Wall St where most major indices eventually saw some composure
  • US President Trump said he doesn't think China will retaliate to an increase in tariffs and understands the September meeting between negotiators is still on
  • Fed Chair Powell reportedly banned Fed staff from any public appearances and is determined not to fuel the struggle between an independent Fed and President...
Categories:
  • Risk-off resumed as US-China trade tensions flared up; stock futures slumped and fixed income surged
  • China's Finance Ministry says China will have to take countermeasures on US moves, US actions violate the consensus reached in Osaka’s G20 meeting
  • US President Trump tweeted that China is eating tariffs with currency devaluation and that the tariff delay helps China more than US, but will be reciprocated
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, US NY Fed, Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial...
Categories:
  • Asian equities conformed to the rout seen on Wall St. where all major indices fell around 3% and the DJIA slumped 800 points in its worst performance YTD
  • US President Trump tweeted that China is eating tariffs with currency devaluation and that the tariff delay helps China more than US, but will be reciprocated
  • British officials reportedly strongly dispute the EU's interpretation that PM Johnson's actions and demands mean he is now deliberately aiming for a No Deal outcome
  • In FX, DXY was relatively...
Categories:
  • European equities are lower across the board as yesterday’s risk on sentiment fizzles out a Chinese data disappoints, and Germany prints a Q/Q GDP contraction
  • China is to keep its plan for September trade talks in Washington with the US following the US tariff delay, according to sources
  • The US 2yr/10yr yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007 with Bunds printing fresh contract highs above the 178.0 mark
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Import/Export prices
  • Earnings: Cisco...
Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded higher across the board with global risk appetite spurred by a de-escalation in the US-China trade war
  • Continued PBoC liquidity efforts and a firmer CNY fix added to the optimism before weaker than expected Chinese data saw stocks give back some of their gains
  • Italian Senate rejected League's call for a no confidence vote in parliament on Wednesday and are to debate the no confidence motion in parliament on August 20th
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German Q2 GDP...
Categories:
  • European indices are lower [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%] as sentiment remains risk off as the geopolitical situation remains tense with dismal German data not helping
  • Hong Kong's airport has reportedly suspended all check-ins, following online calls for another day of public assembly
  • USD is mixed between G10 counterparts with antipodeans and safe-havens outperforming and EM’s lagging
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI & Italian Senate meeting to decide on Confidence Vote timing...
Categories:
  • Asian equities followed suit from the losses on Wall St with sentiment sapped by the continued overhang from the US-China trade war and disruptions in HK
  • UK PM Johnson believes EU will cave in at the last minute to save Ireland from a no-deal Brexit, according to reports citing a Downing Street source
  • Italian Senate is to meet today at 1700BST to decide when to debate the League no-confidence motion in government
  • Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI & ZEW, UK Employment, US CPI, UK 2049...
Categories:
  • European indices are now little changed, after a volatile morning dictated by risk sentiment amidst further unrest in Hong Kong
  • Hong Kong’s airport authority have activated an ‘emergency center’, and all non-checking in flights cancelled for Monday; reports indicate the People’s Armed Police are heading towards Shenzhen
  • China Global Times Editor tweeted that as long as US forces a deal on China through maximum pressure, there will never be a deal
  • Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Senate to...
Categories:
  • Asian equity markets began the week with a cautious tone, Japan, India and Singapore were away on holiday
  • In FX markets, the DXY was flat, EUR and GBP received some mild reprieve and USD/JPY revisited Friday’s lows
  • China Global Times Editor tweeted that as long as US forces a deal on China through maximum pressure, there will never be a deal
  • UK MPs are reportedly drawing up plans to force PM Johnson to request a Brexit extension, while...
Categories:
  • European indices are firmly in negative territory [Euro Stoxx 50 -1.0%], as the mixed Asia-Pac handover fizzled out
  • BTPs, FTSE MIB and Italian Banks are under significant pressure as recent reports indicate League Party are to present a no-confidence motion in the Government
  • UK GDP Prelim QQ Q2 -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0%, after which Sterling touched multi-year lows at 1.2080
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, include US PPI, Canadian Building Permits & Jobs...
Categories:
  • Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as the region got a mild tailwind from the strong performance on Wall St and continued PBoC restraint on the CNY
  • US delayed the decision regarding Huawei licenses following China’s suspension of agricultural purchases
  • Italian Deputy PM and League leader Salvini said there is no longer a majority to support the government and it is necessary to hold fresh elections
  • AUD/USD tumultuous at the whim of central bank rhetoric including RBA Governor Lowe’s...
Categories:
Asia begins cautious as oil surges and geopolitical concerns heighten following attacks on Saudi refineries, while… https://t.co/0pwRyT8UWv