RANsquawk

Blog

  • Bank of England expected to lift its base rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.75%; vote split expected to be 7-2
  • Recent UK data points and MPC rhetoric has lead to markets pricing in a circa 80-90% chance of a hike
  • Little in the way of material changes are expected for inflation and growth forecasts with the economy having developed largely in-fitting with the MPC’s expectations

BACKGROUND

After what has been a complex year thus far for the Old Lady,...

  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Not much in the way of fireworks expected given last month’s policy adjustments
  • Draghi likely to be mindful of trade tensions and grilled on timing of rate lift-off  

BACKGROUND

PREVIOUS MEETING: Last time around, the ECB announced a reduction in monthly sovereign bond purchases to EUR 15bln/month, through the end of 2018 when it will end (current EUR 30bln/month...

Key Events

Sunday: Turkish General Election

Monday: German IFO

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: BoE Governor Carney speaks, US Durable Goods, Trade Balance

Thursday: RBNZ Rate Decision, German CPI (Prelim), US GDP (Final), EU Summit

Friday: Japan Labour Market, German Labour Market, UK GDP (Final), EZ CPI, US PCE, Canadian GDP (monthly)  

  • SNB is expected to stand pat on policy rate at -0.75%, with little change anticipated to the policy statement
  • The central bank is likely to reiterate its commitment to FX intervention in order to offset any unwanted appreciation of the “highly valued” CHF

EXPECTATIONS

The Swiss National Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, maintaining the Sight deposit rate at -0.75%, and the 3-month LIBOR target range between -1.25% and -0.25%. In recent...

Categories:
  • Norges Bank to publish its rate decision and new economic projections at 09:00 BST
  • Rates expected unchanged
  • Growth, inflation profiles may be revised up
  • Central bank expected to stick to its hawkish stance
Categories:
  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Will the ECB unveil their blueprint for winding down their PSPP or will they ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
  • Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
  • Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth...
Categories:
100 days until Brexit, just a case of dotting the "I's" and crossing the "t's" now guys 👀