RANsquawk

Blog

  • Monday: Eurogroup meeting
  • Tuesday: Brexit Meaningful Vote (TBC), ECOFIN meeting, UK GDP, US CPI
  • Wednesday: Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI
  • Thursday: BoJ Rate Decision, US Retail Sales
  • Friday: Eurozone CPI (final), NY Fed Mfg, Uni of Michigan (Prelim), US JOLTS (Jan), US Industrial Production
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Monday: US Wholesale Inventories

Tuesday: US Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed, Powell Senate testimony, Fed Discount Minutes, NZ Trade

Wednesday: Brexit vote, US Durables, US Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, Powell House testimony, Canadian CPI, BoK Rate Decision

Thursday: US GDP, Chicago PMI, Swedish GDP, German CPI

Friday:  US PCE, ISM Mfg PMI, Construction Spending, Auto Sales , German Employment,  Eurozone PMI (F), Canadian GDP

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  • Monday:
  • Tuesday: UK Labour Market Report, RBA Minutes, German ZEW Survey, Japan Trade Balance
  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, US Housing Starts, US Building Permits, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash)
  • Thursday: ECB Mins, Aussie Labour Report, Philly Fed, US Existing Home Sales, US & Eurozone Markit Flash PMIs, Japan CPI
  • Friday: Eurozone CPI (Final), Riksbank Minutes
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  • Monday: Turkish CPI, UK Construction PMI, Eurozone PPI, US Factory Orders
  • Tuesday: Australian Trade, RBA Rate Decision, Eurozone (F), UK and US Services PMIs, Eurozone Retail Sales, Canadian Trade, US ISM Non-Manufacturing,
  • Wednesday: US Trade, Australian Jobs Report
  • Thursday: BoE Rate Decision, Minutes & QIR, RBI & Banxico Rate Decision,
  • Friday: German Trade, Norwegian GDP, Canadian Jobs
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Mon: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence, China GDP & Retail Sales

Tue: UK Labour Report, US Existing Home Sales, NZ CPI, Hungary rate decision, US Existing Home Sales, Japan Trade Balance

Wed: BoJ, Canadian Retail Sales, Australia PMIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Thu: ECB, Norges Bank, Australia Labour Report, Eurozone & US PMIs, Japan CPI

Fri: US Durable Goods, New Home Sales

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Week In Focus; week commencing 8 October 2018

Sunday: Brazilian Election

Monday: Chinese Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone Sentiment Index

Tuesday: Japanese Current Account

Wednesday: Australian GDP, US PPI, UK Monthly GDP, Production & Trade Balance

Thursday: US CPI, Japanese PPI, ECB Minutes

Friday: Eurozone Industrial Production, Chinese Trade Balance, Pastor Brunson court decision, US Banks kick off US earnings season

ITALIAN BUDGET

Last week...

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Key Events

Monday: Eurozone CPI

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, UK CPI, New Zealand GDP

Thursday: SNB Interest Rate Decision, Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision, EU leaders expected to discuss Brexit

Friday: Japan CPI, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs (Flash), Canada CPI

Sunday: JMMC meeting in...

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  • Bank of England expected to lift its base rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.75%; vote split expected to be 7-2
  • Recent UK data points and MPC rhetoric has lead to markets pricing in a circa 80-90% chance of a hike
  • Little in the way of material changes are expected for inflation and growth forecasts with the economy having developed largely in-fitting with the MPC’s expectations

BACKGROUND

After what has been a complex year thus far for the Old Lady,...

  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Not much in the way of fireworks expected given last month’s policy adjustments
  • Draghi likely to be mindful of trade tensions and grilled on timing of rate lift-off  

BACKGROUND

PREVIOUS MEETING: Last time around, the ECB announced a reduction in monthly sovereign bond purchases to EUR 15bln/month, through the end of 2018 when it will end (current EUR 30bln/month...

  • Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
  • Will the ECB unveil their blueprint for winding down their PSPP or will they ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
  • Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
  • Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth...
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Key Events

  • Monday: UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
  • Tuesday: Japanese Services PMI, Caixin Services PMI, RBA Rate Decision, EZ Markit Services and Manufacturing PMI,
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing, UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI
  • Wednesday: Australian GDP
  • Thursday: EZ GDP (3rd Reading)
  • Friday: Japanese GDP, Canadian Jobs Data, G7 meeting in Canada
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2019 - the year of the 'gender-neutral Satnav' https://t.co/jyvdfUU0eZ