RANsquawk Week Ahead Preview, 26 to 30 June 2017
25 Jun 2017, 19:44
The RANsquawk Weekly G10 Central Bank Monitor can be accessed here NORTH AMERICA MON 26 JUN 2017 - 1330BST: US DURABLE GOODS ORDER (MAY, PRELIM) Forecast: -0.7% vs prev. -0.8%; ex-transport seen 0.3% vs prev. -0.5%. The headline weakness is likely to come on the back of softer orders from Boeing, which reported 13 orders in May, down from the 15 in April (note: this reading captures the pre-Paris air show data). Excluding transport, the picture should be more stable, and there is some risk of prior revisions upwards, Credit Agricole says: “Durable goods production excluding vehicles was reported to have decreased 0.6%, but we think that April’s unexpected decline was overdone and should put upward pressure on orders this month.” TUE 27 JUN 2017 - 1500BST: US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (JUN) Forecast: 116 vs prev. 117.9. Lower confidence is likely to be driven by declines in the expectations index, which are forecast to fall by around 2 points to 100.6, analysts believe. “The usual drivers of confidence have all remained supportive in recent weeks,” says Capital Economics, “labour market conditions are still strong, gasoline prices have been trending lower and the stock market is at a record high.” But the consultancy wants that “the timelier Gallup and University of Michigan measures of confidence have both dropped back recently. And based on the past relationship, the Conference Board index also looks set for a fall.” THU 29 JUN 2017 - 1330BST: US GDP (Q1, 3RD RELEASE) Forecast: 1.2% Q/Q annualised, unchanged vs 2nd release; consumption expected to be revised up to 0.9% from 0.6%; price index seen unchanged vs 2nd release at 2.2%. No major changes are expected to the headline, though the composition of growth will be in focus, particularly the price index. FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 1330BST: US PCE, PERSONAL INCOME, PERSONAL SPENDING (MAY) Forecast: personal income 0.3% M/M vs prev 0.4%; spending 0.1% M/M vs prev. 0.4%. Core PCE 1.4% Y/Y vs prev. 1.5%. The Fed recently downgraded its view of PCE inflation in 2017 to 1.6%m and the core measure to 1.7%. The May data is likely to highlight the challenges the Fed faces as it normalises policy, with the PCE data once again moving away from target. Meanwhile, May’s employment report saw wages grow by 0.2% M/M, and “this should feed tspanough to broad personal income growth of 0.3%,” ERBS says. “Spending growth is poised to come in lighter than income on the back of relatively soft retail sales on the month,” and the bank notes “that the retail number came with substantial back-month revisions, and accordingly, even with a flat read for May, real personal consumption is poised to clock in 3%+ for the quarter overall.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 1330BST: CANADA GDP (APR) Forecast: exp. 0.20% M/M vs prev. 0.50%. Following a strong March print, where utilities and manufacturing supported output, though utilities output is likely to come in flat in April, RBC’s analysts say. The bank also expects a 5% M/M drop in non-conventional oil extraction after fire-related shutdowns which may impact the headline. Meanwhile, RBC says solid retail and wholesale sales data should be supportive. “Taking a step back, the BoC’s hawkish shift is supported by an average of 3.5% annualized growth the last tspanee quarters, with a strong April outcome incrementally adding to this trend,” RBS says. FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 1500BST: US: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN (JUN, FINAL)The Prelim release came in at 94.5, down from 97.1, missing expectations, and printing the softest reading since October 2016, with weakness evenly spread between the current conditions and future expectations index. “All optimism generated by Trump’s Presidential victory has been reversed now, which presumably relates to the lack of action on fiscal stimulus, tax reform and healthcare changes,” said analysts at ING. “There was also a steep fall in business expectations for next year (again back to Trump election levels) and also business conditions over the last few months.” ING adds that weak wage growth was likely to have exacerbated the situation. “Nonetheless,” the bank says “most other spending related questions saw similar responses seen in recent months (be it buying a house, car or other items).” It is worth noting that the prelim data showed 1-year inflation expectations unchanged at 2.6%, but 5-year expectations rose by 0.2ppts to 2.6%. EUROPE THU 29 JUN 2017 - 1000BST: EC ECONOMIC SENTIMENT (JUN) Forecast: 109.5 vs prev. 109.2. The ESI is expected to rise slightly in June, and this is consistent with firming economic activity, Capital Economics says. The consultancy wars, however, that the ESI tracks the PMI surveys quite closely, and in June, Markit’s PMIs fell to five-month lows. CapEco expects “a small fall in the German Ifo, part of which feeds into German component of the ESI. But we already know that the consumer confidence index, which makes up 20% of the overall ESI, rose sharply in June, to its highest level since April 2001. And French statistics agency Insee’s composite business climate indicator, which is also incorporated in the EC survey, rose in the same month.” If the ESI rises in line with the consensus view, it would be consistent with growth around 2.5% in Q2, though survey data has been overly optimistic about growth, as of late, CapEco notes. THU 29 JUN 2017 - 1300BST: GERMANY CPI (JUN, FLASH) Forecast: CPI 1.4% Y/Y vs prev. 1.5%. Fall oil prices resulted in downward pressure to German inflation, and as crude now eyes USD 40 per barrel, there is little reason to expect any dramatic change, HSBC says. FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0855BST: GERMANY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JUN) Forecast: unemployment rate seen unchanged at 5.7%. “There are hardly any reasons to assume that the robust labour market situation will end soon,” says HSBC’s analysts, “leading indicators point to a continued above potential GDP growth rate in 2017, and companies are planning to hire more workers, according to surveys.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 1000BST: EUROZONE: HICP (JUN, FLASH) Forecast: Exp. 1.2% Y/Y vs prev. 1.40% Prev; Core forecast at 1.0% vs prev. 0.90%. After May’s surprise fall to the lost levels since last December, analysts are expecting a subdued flash inflation print in June, which may cool any talk of ECB tightening. The Easter effect has now unwound, but there is scant signs of inflationary pressure. “June consumer price data should put another damper on speculation about an ECB rate hike in 2018, as underlying inflation pressure failed to pick up in June,” writes Commerzbank, adding “the continued decline in the headline rate of inflation to 1.2% will not be to the ECB’s liking, as it will depress market inflation expectations.” UK THU 29 JUN 2017 - 0930BST: NET CONSUMER CREDIT (MAY), MORTGAGE APPROVALS (MAY) Consumer credit is seen rising GBP 1.5bln matching the prior; mortgage approvals are seen at 644 vs prev. 64.645k. The mortgage data is likely to provide further evidence of a slowdown in housing activity, according to Capital Economics. Mortgage approvals fell for the third straight month in April, to the lowest levels since September 2016. This may be a reflection of a high house price to median gross annual income ratio discouraging activity, the consultancy says. “But with GDP growth set to rebound in Q2, employment growing strongly, and interest rates remaining low, there are good reasons to think that approvals should stabilise in the second half of this year.” Meanwhile the consumer data may suggest unsecured lending is beginning to lose momentum. “On the basis of past form, the current level of the headline GfK/NOP composite consumer confidence balance points to a moderation in the (tspanee-month average) annual growth rate in unsecured borrowing,” CapEco writes, noting however, that it would still be high by historical standards. FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0001BST: UK GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (JUL) Forecast: Exp. -7 vs Prev. -5. Consumer confidence is seen easing a touch within the narrow 2017 range. Investec’s analysts expect a lower print on the back of general trends in spending, as well as the lingering political uncertainty and what it describes as “a series of horrific events” that are expected to have weighed on sentiment. FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0930BST: UK GDP (Q1, FINAL) Forecast: 0.2% Q/Q vs last 0.2%; 2.0% Y/Y vs prev. 2.0%. The second look at UK GDP in Q3 saw a 0.1ppts downward revision to the Q/Q print, and analysts at HSBC say there has been little of note to suggest there will be any meaningful revision in the final data. “This release will give us a firmer feel for the breakdown by expenditure: the second GDP release showed consumption growth slowing sharply as expected, and net exports dragging a hefty 1.4ppts from the q-o-q growth rate,” says HSBC, and also a few more indicators, including the current account deficit and the savings ratio. “In Q4 2016, the former appeared to have narrowed sharply,” the bank writes, “and given the performance of net exports, it is likely to have widened back out again.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0930BST: UK INDEX OF SERVICES (APR) Forecast 0.3% M//M vs prev. 0.2%; 0.4% 3m/3m vs prev 0.2%. The slowdown in services growth was one of the main contributers to the weak Q1 GDP data. However, looking ahead, there are reasons to be sanguine: PMI surveys were decent in March and April ASIA-PAC TUE 29 JUN 2017 - 2345BST: NZ INTERNATIONAL TRADE (MAY) Forecast: Trade balance (NSA) exp. +394m vs prev. +578m. Analysts expect April’s large trade surplus to pare back in May after dairy exports eased. TD Securities points out that exports begin to decelerate in May. Flat petrol prices will take some of the weight off imports, the bank believes. THU 29 JUN 2017 - 0050BST: JAPAN RETAIL SALES (MAY) Forecast 2.8% vs prev. 1.4%. Base effects and low fuel prices are likely to be the key factor driving up retail sales this month, analysts at Moody’s say, and although retail sales are rising on an annualised basis, momentum has been weak this year. “Spending on big-ticket items is still sporadic because wage growth has remained subdued,” Moody’s writes. “A sharp increase in underlying retail activity is unlikely because consumers remain pessimistic about their prospects.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0030BST: JAPAN JOBLESS RATE (MAY) Forecast: 2.8% unchanged; job-to-applicant ratio forecast 1.49 vs prev. 1.48. Although the consensus view looks for an unchanged rate of joblessness, Capital Economics analysts argue that “the job-to-applicant ratio has continued to rise which points to further falls in the jobless rate,” and predicts a fall to 2.70%. Meanwhile, Nomura’s analysts say “labour supply-demand is continuing to tighten due to the boost from improvements in the economy.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0030BST: JAPAN: CPI (MAY) Forecast: CPI 0.50% vs prev. 0.40%; Ex-fresh food 0.40% vs prev. 0.3%; Ex-fresh food and energy 0.1% vs prev 0.0%. The consensus view looks for a small rebound in Japanese inflation in May. Analysts at Nomura believe “the rise in import prices due to JPY depreciation tspanough end- 2016 has started to have an impact on the core-core inflation rate,” adding, however, that “the rise in the core-core inflation rate in May was sharp, and in June we expect the boost from JPY depreciation to end.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0050BST: JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MAY, FLASH) Forecast: -3.2% vs prev. 4%. Last month’s rebound, driven by surging exports, is unlikely to be sustained, analysts believe. Japanese companies were forecasting a 2.5% M/M fall in May, according to Capital Economics, which says “while companies often overstate future gains in industrial output, forecasts of production falls tend to be more accurate.” FRI 30 JUN 2017 - 0200BST: CHINA NBS MFG AND NON-MFG PMI (JUN) Forecast: Mfg PMI exp. 51.2 vs prev. 51.2; Non-Mfg PMI exp. 54.5 vs prev. 54.5. The consensus view isn’t expecting any major shifts in the official PMI data. TD Securities points out that the Chinese sovereign bond curve is inverted, suggesting industrial activity may slow over the coming months.