*All times local US...
7 p.m.: Polls in Indiana and Virginia close. Both states offer the earliest glimpse of the night to come. Virginia is likely to be the first battleground state to be called, and Indiana's Senate race is considered a must-win if the GOP is to have any chance of winning majority control of the upper chamber.
7:30 p.m.: All eyes are on Ohio as its polls close. Obama can win the night without Ohio, but Romney's path to the White House would be much steeper if he doesn't take the Buckeye State. Polls also close in North Carolina, where the GOP has opportunities for gains in the House.
8 p.m.: Key states closing are Florida and New Hampshire. Both states have been closely fought, and both are highly prized, but Florida with its 29 electoral votes is the biggest tossup state of the night. Illinois has a key House race to watch, which could hold the best opportunity for Democrats to pick up seats. Massachusetts, Missouri and Connecticut also close, all with important Senate races to watch.
9 p.m.: A batch of battleground states close their polls: Colorado, Wisconsin and Arizona. Together they account for 30 electoral votes. In addition, Wisconsin and Arizona, along with Nebraska and North Dakota, which close their polls at the same time, have high-profile Senate races.
10 p.m.: Iowa and Nevada are the final presidential swing states to close. Nevada and Montana both hold important Senate races, while Utah is holding a closely watched congressional race.
11 p.m.: California's polls close. This is the point at which the picture will begin to become clear about who is winning the battle for the White House. Polls also close in Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Final polls close in Alaska at 1:00 a.m.
Full link: http://www.wlrn.org/post/guide-day-election-day-timeline
Great graphic summarising the state votes: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
Analysis details (23:25)
1.) Obama win; House - Republican, Senate - Democrats
This result could lead to heated debates during the lame-duck congress, although will provide no good reason to delay decisions on the fiscal cliff. Pro-longed debate could result in safe-haven flows and hence a fall in the US 10yr yield.
2.) Romney win; House - Republican, Senate - Republican
A Romney win, and Republican control of both the House and Senate, seems the most likely outcome to provide an initial risk-on tone. This would see little resistance to passing of measures, however will elevate policy uncertainty.
3.) President OR Senate changes party (not both)
This outcome could result in GRIDLOCK if the Senate stays Democratic whilst Romney takes the Presidency. Lame-congress would be likely to delay decisions and this outcome could lead to heightened uncertainty in the markets.
*A full research report can be found in the research section of the website.
06 Nov 2012 - 23:25 - Important - Source: RANsquawk/wlrn.org/NY Times
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