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Wednesday, 28 Jan 2015
00:15

DATA EXPECTATIONS:

- CPI (Q4) Q/Q Exp. 0.3% (Low -0.1%, High 0.5%) Prev. 0.5%.

- CPI (Q4) Y/Y Exp. 1.8% (Low 1.3%, High 2.1%) Prev. 2.3%.


- CPI Trimmed Mean (Q4) Q/Q Exp. 0.5% (Low 0.2%, High 0.6%) Prev. 0.4%.

- CPI Trimmed Mean (Q4) Y/Y Exp. 2.2% (Low 1.8%, High 2.3%) Prev. 2.5%.

- CPI Weighted Median (Q4) Q/Q Exp. 0.5% (Low 0.2%, High 0.6%) Prev. 0.6%.

- CPI Weighted Median (Q4) Y/Y Exp. 2.2% (Low 1.9%, High 2.4%) Prev. 2.6%.
 

- In terms of the previous data, the Q3 CPI Y/Y was a year low, whilst the RBA's preferred trimmed mean CPI also printed slightly lower than expected, but still within the central bank's targeted inflation band of 2.00%-3.00% Y/Y.

- Today’s CPI data will garner attention due to next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on February 4. ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures are currently pricing in a 38% expectation of a 25bps rate cut at next week’s RBA meeting. In contrast, the expectation was 19% on Wednesday last week, just before the Bank of Canada rate cut surprise.

- Due to the fact that the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the official CPI data four times a year, it is worth looking at the more recent and more frequent (monthly) TD Securities/Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge results; Australian TD Securities Inflation (Dec) M/M 0.0% (Nov. 0.1%, Oct. 0.2%); TD Securities Inflation (Dec) Y/Y 1.5% (Prev. 2.2%)

- In terms of reaction, AUD will likely see volatile price action as participants position ahead of next week’s rate decision. Of note, AUD/USD has fallen around 4% since last week’s BoC rate decision and around 12% since the Q3 CPI data release, although this has also preceded a raft of disappointing Australian data. Nonetheless, today’s reading will likely have to miss expectations by a large margin to prompt further hefty AUD selling.  Finally, some participants will likely remain side-lined ahead of tomorrow’s RBNZ rate decision as it could give a glimpse of to expect next week.

- Key levels worth noting according to RANsqauwk sources include; bids ahead of 07910, 0.7870 & 0.7850 with resistance at 0.7974, 0.8000 & 0.8030 - Unconfirmed

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Wednesday, 28 Jan 2015
00:12
Analysis details: 00:21

- AUD/USD and NZD/USD have seen some selling pressure due to the USD-index strengthening in the wake of a weaker SGD.

- USD/SGD has broken above the 1.3500 level and trades near its lowest level since August 2010. 

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Wednesday, 28 Jan 2015
00:05

- Lowers 2015 core inflation outlook to 0.5%-1.5% and says it sees core inflation falling further.

- 2015 GDP target remains at 2%-4%.

- No change to width and centre level of its trading band.

Analysis details: 00:26

- Of note, the SGD is a floating currency with its rate evaluated against a concealed basket of currencies by the Singapore central bank (MAS).

- The MAS allows the SGD exchange rate to fluctuate within a policy band, the level and direction of which is announced twice a year.

- As a guide, there has been growing expectations that the MAS will lower the slope to allow a weaker SGD in the face of falling inflation due to a drop in oil prices.

- Today's decision is somewhat of a surprise with the next MAS next bi-annual monetary policy announcement due in April.

Reaction details: 00:06

- In an immediate reaction, USD/SGD rose 78 pips from 1.3395 to 1.3473.

Source: BBG
Print
Wednesday, 28 Jan 2015
00:00
Reaction details: 00:01

- No immediate reaction seen in AUD/USD, trades 0.7916 (-19 pips) last.

Source: BBG
Print
Wednesday, 28 Jan 2015
00:00

EUR/USD - 1.1400-20 (560mln)

AUD/USD - 0.7960 (381mln)

USD/CAD - 1.2375 (438mln)

 

Source: RANsquawk/IFR
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
23:51
Tags: USD - Forex - Asian Session
Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
23:41
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
23:31

ANA (9202 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, 9-month operating profit is around JPY 90bln. (Nikkei)

Chugoku Electric (9504 JT)
- Co. has increased its FY net income forecast by 92% to JPY 23bln vs. Exp. JPY 16.6bln. (BBG)

Hitachi (6501 JT)
- Finmeccanica has picked the Co. for AnsaldoBreda talks. (Repubblica) 

Isuzu (7202 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, 9-month operating profit is around JPY 125bln. (Nikkei)

Kao (4452 JT)
- Co. is considering a possible bid for P&G’s Wella unit. (DealReporter)

Kawasaki Kisen (9107 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, 9-month operating profit is around JPY 42bln. (Nikkei)

Komatsu (6301 JT)/Hitachi Construction (6305 JT)
- Dow heavyweight Caterpillar announced lacklustre earnings yesterday and cut its forecasts on lower China sales. (BBG)

Matsui Securities (8628 JT)
- Co. announced 9-month operating profit decrease of 24.5% at JPY 16.37bln. (RTRS)

Mitsubishi UFJ (8306 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, 9-month operating profit is around JPY 900bln. (Nikkei)

Mizuho Financial (8411 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, 9-month net income is around JPY 500bln. (Nikkei)

Nippon Yusen (9101 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, 9-month operating profit is around JPY 59bln. (Nikkei)

Softbank (9984 JT)
- Yahoo announced a plan to spin-off its remaining stake in Alibaba. (BBG) Of note, Softbank has a 32% stake in Alibaba and a 36% stake in Yahoo Japan.

Sony (6758 JT):
- Co. is to cut 1,000 more jobs in its smartphone division. (Nikkei)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JT)
- Co. reported 9-month net income of JPY 682.2bln vs. Exp. JPY 648.3bln. (BBG)

Suzuki Motor (7269 JT)
- Co.’s Indian unit missed expectations on operating profit. (BBG)

TonenGeneral (5012 JT)
- According to the Nikkei, FY operating loss is about JPY 80bln which would exceed the range of analyst expectations (Exp. range JPY 20bln-70.3bln). (Nikkei)

Yahoo Japan (4689 JT)
- Yahoo shares rose significantly after-hours in US trade after the Co. announced a plan to spin-off its remaining stake in Alibaba. Yahoo also said it will continue to hold its Yahoo Japan stake at the current level and is open-minded about its stake options. (BBG) Of note, Yahoo has a 35.5% stake in Yahoo Japan.

Broker Moves

Casio Computer (6952 JT) initiated at overweight by Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley; Price Target JPY 2,450
Honda (7267 JT) downgraded to underweight from neutral at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley; Price Target JPY 3,550
JGC (1963 JT) downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
Nagawa (9663 JT) downgraded to hold from buy at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley; Price Target JPY 2,800
Seiko Holdings (8050 JT) initiated at neutral by Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley
Tokyo Steel (5423 JT) downgraded to underweight from neutral at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley; Price Target JPY 790

Source: BBG/Nikkei/RTRS
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
23:30

GS Engineering (006360 KS)
- Co. net income at KRW 22.2bln compared to expectations at KRW 10.9bln. (BBG)

LG Innotek (011070 KS)
- Co. net at KRW 5.69bln compared to expectation at KRW 31.9bln for Q4. (BBG)

LG Household (051900 KS)
- Co. operating profit at KRW 111.1bln for Q4 and aims to achieve operating profit of KRW 560bln in 2015. (BBG)

Lotte Chilsung (005300 KS)
- Co. will finance KRW 589bln for 2nd brewery. (BBG)

NCSoft (036570 KS)
- Nexon will aim to contribute in co. management. (BBG)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
- Co. in a partnership with Sharp to develop solar-powered batteries. (BBG)

Samsung SDS (018260 KS)
- Co. net income at KRW 129.9bln compared to expectations of 144.3bln in Q4. (BBG)

Broker Moves
- Samsung C&T (000830 KS) upgraded to outperform at Macquarie.

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
23:30
Reaction details: 23:31

- No immediate reaction AUD/USD, trades 0.7921 (-14 pips) last.

Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
23:05
Analysis details: 23:08

- Iron ore miners again underperform as the spot price of the commodity fell to another 5-and-a-half year low yesterday.

- Mount Gibson (MXI AT) is the worst performer after announcing a non-cash impairment of AUD 850mln-950mln)

- Australian Q4 CPI figures are due out at 1830CST/0030GMT/0830HKT with the Y/Y figure expected at 1.8% which would be the lowest reading since mid-2012.

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:54
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:44

- Lowers 2015 Brent estimate from USD 69.75 to USD 52.50.

- Lowers 2016 Brent estimate from USD 80 to USD 67.50.

 

- Lowers 2015 WTI estimate from USD 64.75 to USD 49.

- Lowers 2016 WTI estimate from USD 75 to USD 62.50.

Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:35

AGL Energy (AGL AT)
- Co. has suspended examinations at fracking site after identifying chemicals in samples of water. (BBG)

Aurizon (AZJ AT)
- Co. coal volume at 56.2mln for December. (BBG)

BHP Billiton (BHP AT)
- UBS analysts state that the oil slump may lead to a fall in earnings by 8%-14% for BHP over the forthcoming 3 years. (BBG)

Drill Search (DLS AT)
- Co. revenue at AUD 70.3mln for December with production at 0.79mmboe. (BBG)

Mount Gibson (MGX AT)
- Co. iron ore sales revenue at AUD 72mln with non-cash impairment forecasted around AUD 850mln-AUD 950mln in H1. (BBG)
- Co. has stopped non-essential activities and decreased their workforce at Koolan Island. (BBG)

OZ Minerals (OZL AT)
- Co. output beats expectations as copper output hits 92.6k oz’s vs Exp. 85k-90k oz’s and gold output reaches 148.2k oz vs Exp. 130k-140k oz in 2014. (BBG)
- Co. December output of copper at 26k tonnes and gold at 36.3k oz’s. (BBG)

Sirius (SIR AT)
- Co. deals for nickel and copper offtake are close to being finalised. (BBG)

Basic Materials
- Gold futures have increased the most in a week in New York whilst China import iron ore benchmark drops for 5th consecutive day, according to Metal Bulletin. (BBG)
- Goldman goal downgrades commodities to underweight on a 3 month basis and upgrades on a 12 month basis.

Broker Moves
- AWE (AWE AT) downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS.
- Pact (PGH AT) upgraded to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
- Santos (STO AT) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
- Silver Lake (SLR AT) upgraded to neutral at Macquarie.

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:30
Reaction details: 22:30

- No immediate reaction seen in AUD/USD, trades 0.7936 (+1 pip) last.

Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:24
Source: RTRS
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:08

Says:
- will report update in April on capital return. 

Analysis details: 22:25

- Co.'s cash reserves rose to USD 178bln in Q1. 

Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:07

Says:
- Purchased USD 4.2bln in shares for 2014. 

Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:05


US MARKET WRAP: US equities traded in a sea of red as large-cap stocks weighed heavily on indices alongside weak earnings, with a downbeat US Durable Goods release adding further to the downside 

US stocks traded sharply lower during the session, with substantial losses seen in the Technology and Industrials sector, which were led lower by Microsoft and Caterpillar, respectively. The construction and mining machinery giant announced forecasts of slower growth in for 2015 citing the recent decline in oil prices. Other large-cap stocks such as Procter & Gamble, 3M and Du Pont also weighed on the S&P 500 and the DJIA, which at one point had dropped almost 400 points. Furthermore, today’s Durable Goods Orders (-3.4% vs. Exp. 0.3%) added further to the downside with the subsequent tier-1 data releases Consumer Confidence (102.9 vs. Exp. 95.5) and New Home Sales (11.6% vs. Exp. 2.7%) only managing to provide short-lived relief to US stocks, despite Consumer Confidence posting the highest reading since August 2007. Finally, the DJIA finished down 1.65% at 17,387.21, the S&P 500 finished down 1.34% at 2,029.55 and the NASDAQ-100 finished down 2.58% at 4,165.50. 

US Treasuries closed higher but well off best levels as selling into the close was observed ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. Treasuries had gained in the early part of the session amid weak stocks and poor US Durable Goods Orders which prompted fast-money buying, as noted by analysts at IFR. However, in storm-thinned trade, Treasuries backed off highs with profit taking seen ahead of the FOMC. At the pit close, T-notes settled at 129.21, down 5 ticks. ​

In terms of commodities, Brent and WTI crude futures rose midway throughout the session on the back of a weaker USD, which was weighed heavily by the disappointing data and the decline in US debt yields across the curve. Adding further to the upside, oil prices benefited amid reports that Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi met with Russian and Norwegian ambassadors for talks on the stabilization of the beleaguered oil market.

Elsewhere, spot gold led the precious metals complex higher amid the weaker USD, with the yellow metal toying with the USD 1,300.00 handle but unable to break above it. Copper futures, on the other hand, trended lower throughout the day after Chinese Industrial profits overnight (-8.0% vs. Prev. -4.2%) posted its biggest fall on record. 

 

 

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:03

AUSTRALIA

- Ahead of today's CPI data and next week's RBA rate decision, ANZ CEO says the RBA should hold off rate cuts. (AFR) 

UK

UK GDP (Q4 A) Q/Q 0.5% vs Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%); Y/Y 2.7% vs Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.6%)
 

COMMODITIES

- API Crude Oil Inventories (Jan 23) W/W 12700k vs. Prev. 5700k
- Refinery capacity utilisation up 1.8% at 89.5%.
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Jan 23) W/W 2000k vs. Prev. 2500k
- Gasoline Inventories (Jan 23) W/W -5000k vs. Prev. 2100k
- Distillate Inventories (Jan 23) W/W -670k vs. Prev. -1800k


US
- Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision, Morgan Stanley delays their expectation of a Fed rate hike to March 2016 from Jan. 2016.

Data Recap:

- US Durable Goods Orders (Dec) M/M -3.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.7%, Rev. -2.1%); Ex Transportation (Dec) M/M -0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -0.4%, Rev. -1.3%).

- US New Home Sales (Dec) M/M 11.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. -1.6%); M/M 481k vs. Exp. 450k (Prev. 438k, Rev. 431k)
- US Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) M/M 102.9 vs. Exp. 95.5 (Prev. 92.6, Rev. 93.1); highest since August 2007

Large Earnings Recap:

- Apple (AAPL)  Q1 EPS USD 3.06 vs. Exp. USD 2.60. Q1 iPhone sales 74.5mln units vs. Exp. 64.9mln units with average selling price USD 687 vs. Exp. around USD 668. Q1 revenue USD 74.60bln vs. Exp. USD 67.5bln. Q1 gross margin 39.9% vs. Exp. 38.5%. Co. says it is facing greater FX headwinds in Q2.

- Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) Q4 Adj. EPS USD 0.30 vs. Exp. USD 0.29; plans a tax-free sale of its remaining stake in Alibaba (BABA)  into a newly formed spin-off company.

- AT&T Inc (T) Q4 Adj. EPS USD 0.55 vs. Exp. USD 0.54.

- Caterpillar (CAT) Q4 Adj. EPS USD 1.35 vs. Exp. USD 1.55; Expects slow growth this year citing the decline in oil prices for the downbeat sales and revenue forecasts

Wall Street Summary:

US stocks fell weighed on by weakness in the Technology and Industrials sectors, amid weak earning from Microsoft and Caterpillar, respectively. Furthermore, today’s Durable Goods Orders data added further to the downside with the subsequent tier-1 data releases Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales only managing to provide short-lived relief. The DJIA finished down 1.65%, S&P 500 down 1.34% and NASDAQ-100 down 2.58%.

USTs finished in the green albeit off best levels, supported by weak stocks and poor data amid position squaring into the close was observed ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision.

In FX markets, the USD tumbled against all of its major peers with the USD-index falling over 1% at one stage ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The green back was also weighed on by the disappointing US data and the decline in US debt yields across the curve.

Elsewhere, EUR/CHF rallied as high as 1.0382 with SNB intervention the suspected catalyst for the move, after comments from SNB’s Danthine reiterating the SNB will continue to intervene in the FX market.

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:01
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:01
Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:00

- For anyone interested in accessing the Asia-Pac service in future please email us at admin@ransquawk.com.

Source: RANsquawk
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
22:00
Source: BBG
Print
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015
21:35

- Refinery capacity utilisation up 1.8% at 89.5%.

- API Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Jan 23) W/W 2000k vs. Prev. 2500k

- API Gasoline Inventories (Jan 23) W/W -5000k vs. Prev. 2100k

- API Distillate Inventories (Jan 23) W/W -670k vs. Prev. -1800k

Source: RTRS
Print